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Strong initial performance on Chinese platforms and PC

Goddess of Victory: Nikke (China): Strong performance on local platforms and PC

Since its May 22 launch in China, Goddess of Victory: Nikke has been generating average daily revenue in the mid/high-W2bn range (estimate), supported by stronger-than-anticipated user traffic. While the game has slid to the mid-teens in iOS revenue rankings (after breaking into the top 10 at launch), this is largely due to a greater share of revenue from other platforms and an unexpectedly strong showing on PC.

In China, we estimate the title’s iOS revenue share at less than 35%, which is low relative to other games. As of May 25, the number of iOS downloads is believed to be around 500,000―lower than the figures for local platforms TapTap (770,000 downloads; 690,000 pre-registrations) and Bilibili (510,000 downloads; 810,000 pre-registrations). Additionally, the PC version is making a large revenue contribution (estimated at over 20%) from the outset, which was not seen with the global release; on WeGame, China’s largest PC game platform, Goddess of Victory: Nikke is currently ranked no. 3.

Positive initial feedback suggests potential for long-term success

Despite some user dissatisfaction (mainly due to differences in launch rewards across platforms and frustration over the luck-based character acquisition system), the overall response to the game has been positive, with players praising the genre’s novelty, the distinctive character designs, and the engaging storyline. It currently holds an average score of 8.8 on Bilibili (among the highest ratings for major games), 6.8 on TapTap (up from 6.5 initially), and a 73% recommendation rate on WeGame (placing it among the top tier). On WeChat’s trend index, the game reached a fresh high of 18mn on May 24.

Meanwhile, earlier concerns about content spoilers and censorship have proven unfounded. The Chinese version is meaningfully different from the global version in terms of character abilities and skins, effectively eliminating spoiler concerns. In addition, the censorship that has been applied appears to be within reasonable limits.

Retain Buy and TP of W98,000

We continue to assume that Goddess of Victory: Nikke will generate average daily revenue of W1bn in China in 2025. We believe the recent drop in the stock (down to a 2025F P/E of 12x) reflects excessive concerns about the title’s performance in China; in our view, it is time to factor in its strong performance on local Chinese platforms and PC. Notably, PC-based revenue is not subject to the 30% app store commission, allowing the developer to recognize a higher share of gross revenue.

Of note, “pickup character” recruitment events (the game’s core monetization feature) have not yet been rolled out in the Chinese version. As such, we see potential for a boost in player spending and accompanying share momentum once such events begin. Notably, the global version has seen a sharp rise in revenue during pickup events (even exceeding levels seen during the initial launch phase).