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In-vitro diagnostic revenue of W500bn within reach

4Q25 review: Revenue meets consensus; OP misses

For 4Q25, Seegene posted revenue of W130.6bn (+13% YoY), broadly in line with the consensus. Reagent revenue reached W99.9bn (+11% YoY), marking the highest quarterly level in three years. Growth was driven by HPV (+38% YoY) and gastrointestinal (+33% YoY) test kits. Meanwhile, respiratory test kits (-9% YoY; -35% YoY for PL products, +5% YoY non-COVID-19, and -3% YoY for COVID-19) and women’s health (+10% YoY) underperformed. Instrument revenue rose 20% YoY to W30.7bn.

Operating profit came in at W6.9bn (OP margin of 5.3%), swinging to black YoY but falling short of the consensus. The company paid performance bonuses (roughly W11bn) for the first time in several years, contributing to the miss. Excluding this one-off item, we estimate adjusted OP margin at 14%, the highest level since the pandemic. We estimate adjusted EBITDA at W26.3bn (-4% YoY; adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.1%).

Reaffirm Buy and TP of W44,000

In 4Q25, cumulative installations of PCR amplification systems exceeded 6,400 units, more than triple the pre-pandemic level (1,800). Reagent revenue per unit reached W15.5mn, remaining above the pre-pandemic average of W12.4mn. Gastrointestinal test kits (benefiting from the transition away from conventional culture methods) and HPV test kits (recognized as the international standard) continue to drive solid growth.

The company has now recorded revenue exceeding W100bn for seven consecutive quarters. Although quarterly fluctuations are expected in 2026, we expect it to mark the first year in which quarterly reagent revenue alone surpasses W100bn. That said, margin improvement may be more limited than initially anticipated due to increased R&D expenses and service fees related to STAgora (PCR test result data-sharing platform) and Cureca (fully automated PCR system), for which full-scale investments are set to begin this year. Reflecting this, we forecast 2026 revenue at W517.3bn (+9% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA at W128.8bn (+13% YoY; adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.9%).

The stock is currently trading at a 12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 7x, a discount to global peers (12x) and its three-year average (9x). The company holds approximately 6.11mn treasury shares (11.7% of issued shares); a potential cancellation could meaningfully enhance shareholder value.