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2Q26 preview: Earnings set to improve in 2H

2Q26 preview: Revenue of W418.7bn (-16.3% YoY) and OP of W4.2bn (-84.7% YoY)

We expect GC Biopharma to post below-consensus 2Q26 results, with revenue of W418.7bn (-16.3% YoY; vs. consensus of W473.6bn) and operating profit of W4.2bn (-84.7% YoY; vs. consensus of W15bn). The main factors behind the expected consensus miss are: 1) a delay in the flu vaccine bulk production schedule; 2) the expected concentration of Hunterase shipments and revenue recognition in 4Q26; and 3) the deferral of recognition for a portion of Alyglo sales to 3Q26. As these factors simply reflect revenue timing shifts, with clear visibility on when the deferred revenue will be recognized, we believe the company remains on track for an earnings rebound in 2H26.

We estimate vaccine revenue at W71.1bn (-30.9% YoY). Because the WHO recommended replacing all three strains included in the 2026-27 flu vaccine, designated institutions in Korea experienced delays in securing the required reference standards. Due to the resulting production delay, approximately W20-25bn in flu vaccine bulk revenue originally expected in 2Q26 is now likely to be recognized in 3Q26.

For Hunterase, we estimate 2Q26 revenue at around W15bn (vs. W25.2bn in 2Q25). However, we expect shipments to pick up in 4Q26, generating over W30bn in overseas sales alone and driving profit growth in the quarter.

Cut TP to W180,000; maintain Buy

We cut our target price by 18% to W180,000 (from W220,000), reflecting a reduction in our target EV/EBITDA to 17x (from 18x) following recent share price declines across domestic pharma/biotech peers. Still, with our target price implying 51.8% upside, we reiterate our Buy rating. Although 2Q26 results are likely to fall short of our previous estimates, our full-year forecasts remain largely unchanged. For 2026, we look for revenue of W1.99tr (-0.1% YoY) and operating profit of W73.2bn (+5.9% YoY).

Alyglo’s US revenue likely grew around 10% QoQ in 2Q26, bringing 1H26 revenue to roughly US$50mn. Meanwhile, the phase 3 pediatric trial for Alyglo has been completed, with the clinical study report expected in 4Q26. The company plans to file for a pediatric indication extension in 1H27, with prescriptions likely to expand to pediatric patients from 2H27.

The roughly W280bn in up-front proceeds from the sale of Curevo has eased the firm’s financial burden, with a portion to be used to repay debt and fund capex totaling W140bn over the next four years. Curevo’s shingles vaccine is expected to enter phase 3 trials in 2027 and receive regulatory approval in 2030. Over the medium to long term, GC Biopharma should also benefit from a CMO agreement and sales-linked royalties.